America celebrated Independence Day with a bang in the stock market this week, as we witnessed record numbers yet again. This impressive performance coincided with a rally in the back end of the yield ...

The “experts” talk about how the U.S. Treasury Curve is currently “inverted.” What does that mean, and should it matter to lenders? The fact is, the yield curve (a graphical representation of yields, ...

Learn to create a yield curve in Excel and understand its implications for interest rate forecasting. Follow our simple guide ...

Treasury yield curve outlook: 3‑month T‑bill most likely 1–2% in 10 years; 2y/10y spread turns positive. See inversion odds ...

There’s nothing I’d rather do to celebrate my 47th birthday than write about the yield curve. 🙂 While the Fed’s rate moves—cuts or hikes—often explain the curve’s shifts, the yield curve itself has ...

The yield curve has long been a closely watched indicator of economic health. When the yield curve inverts, meaning short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates, it is often seen as a harbinger of ...

Much has been made about an impending recession. The reasons, however, are seldom discussed, are even less understood, and do little to inform what actions investors should take (if any). Economists ...

An inverted yield curve indicates short-term rates exceed long-term, suggesting economic caution. Historically, consistent negative spreads on this curve have preceded recessions. Investors might ...

In a blog post published on January 16, economists Benjamin Böninghausen and Andreea Liliana Vladu look to disaggregate the ...

There’s strong and growing evidence that the “next” US recession has begun - or will begin soon. Historically, the longer and deeper has been the initial inversion, the longer and deeper has been the ...

The BOJ said the target level of the 10-year JGB yield will be held at 0%, but will take the upper bound of 1% "as a reference" The bank continued to hold its short term policy rate at -0.1%, even as ...